The distributional effect of a large rice price increase on welfare and poverty in Bangladesh

This paper studies the distributional effect of a sharp rice price increase on welfare and poverty in Bangladesh. We employ household consumption data and include the indirect effect of price responses to estimate the welfare loss. Our findings suggest that the estimated welfare effect can be misleading if household responses to rice consumption and production are ignored. This study further supports the hypothesis that the poor are the main victims of such a shock. Our examination also indicates that a higher rice price may increase or decrease the poverty head‐count ratio, depending on the choice of the poverty line, but worsens the country's poverty situation when it is measured by the per capita consumption gap. Our analysis reveals that the government can play a central role to prevent and mitigate such shocks, particularly in the medium to long run. On the methodological side, we observe that consumption provides a more consistent outcome across different methods of analysis than household income.     

How institutions affect export quality

We examine the relationship between a country's institutional environment and the quality of its exports. Institutional factors such as widespread corruption, inefficient bureaucracy, and high risk of expropriation of private property by government can create uncertainty among producers and discourage them from investing and innovating over the long term. This can limit the ability of producers to improve the quality of their exports in the future. We find some evidence that a better institutional environment (i.e. lower corruption, more efficient bureaucracy and more secure property rights) is associated with better export quality. After accounting for potential endogeneity between institutional and economic variables, we conclude that better institutions lead to improvements in export quality. Among the institutional factors considered in this article, corruption appears to be most robustly associated with export quality. These results have important implications for policymakers.     

Further Evidence on the Link between Finance and Growth: An International Analysis of Community Banking and Economic Performance

We try to contribute to both the finance-growth literature and the community banking literature by testing the effects of the relative health of community banks on economic growth, and investigating potential transmission mechanisms for these effects using data from 1993 to 2000 on 49 nations. Data from both developed and developing nations suggest that greater market shares and efficiency ranks of small, private, domestically owned banks are associated with better economic performance, and that the marginal benefits of higher shares are greater when these banks are more efficient. Only mixed support is found for hypothesized transmission mechanisms through improved financing for small and medium enterprises or greater overall bank credit flows. Data from developing nations are also consistent with favorable economic effects of foreign-owned banks, but unfavorable effects from state-owned banks.     

Efficiency and stock returns: evidence from the insurance industry

This study investigates whether the capital market values the efficiency of firms. After tracing stock returns and efficiency changes of 399 listed insurance firms in 52 countries during the 2002–2008 period, the paper reports a positive and statistically significant relationship between profit efficiency change and market adjusted stock returns. However, there is no robust evidence that cost efficiency change is associated with stock returns.     

Predicting rating changes for banks: how accurate are accounting and stock market indicators?

We aim to assess how accurately accounting and stock market indicators predict rating changes for Asian banks. We conduct a stepwise process to determine the optimal set of early indicators by tracing upgrades and downgrades from rating agencies, as well as other relevant factors. Our results indicate that both accounting and market indicators are useful leading indicators but are more effective in predicting upgrades than downgrades, especially for large banks. Moreover, early indicators are only significant in predicting rating changes for banks that are more focused on traditional banking activities such as deposit and loan activities. Finally, a higher reliance of banks on subordinated debt is associated with better accuracy of early indicators.     

Online grocery shopping: the impact of shopping frequency on perceived risk

Online grocery shopping has enjoyed strong growth and it is predicted this channel will continue to grow exponentially in the coming years. While online shopping has attracted an abundance of research interest, examinations of online grocery shopping behaviour are only now emerging. Shopping online for groceries differs considerably from general online shopping due to the perishability and variability of the product, and frequency of the shopping activity. Two salient gaps underpin this research into online grocery shopping. This study responds to calls to investigate the online shoppers’ experience in the context of online purchasing frequency. Second, this study examines the mediating effect of perceived risk between trust and online repurchase intention of groceries. An online survey was employed to collect data from shoppers who were recruited from a multi-channel grocery e-retailer’s database. The online survey, comprising 16 reflective validated scale items, was sent to 555 frequent and infrequent online grocery shoppers. Results find that while customer satisfaction predicts trust for both infrequent and frequent online grocery shoppers, perceived risk fully mediates the effect of trust on repurchase intentions for infrequent online grocery shoppers. Furthermore, path analysis reveals that the developed behavioural model is variant across both groups of shoppers. Theoretically, we provide a deeper understanding of the online customer experience, while gaining insight into two shopper segments identified as being important to grocery e-retailers. For managers, this study tests an online customer behavioural model with actual purchasing behaviour and identifies the continued presence of perceived risk in grocery e-retailing, regardless of purchase frequency or experience.     

Bank Relationships and Firms' Financial Performance: The Italian Experience

We examine the connection between the number of bank relationships and firms' performance using a unique data set on Italian small firms for which banks are a major source of financing. Our evidence indicates that return on equity and return on assets decrease as the number of bank relationships increases with a stronger effect on small firms than large firms. We also find that interest expense over assets increases as the number of relationships increases. Particularly for small firms, these results are consistent with analyses suggesting that fewer bank relationships reduce information asymmetries and agency problems and outweigh hold‐up problems.     

Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A Specific Factors CGE Analysis of an Agri‐food Import Ban

In the summer of 2014 Russia imposed a ban on most agri‐food products from countries enforcing Ukraine‐related sanctions against Russia. We use a specific factors computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short‐run impact of this retaliatory policy. The baseline is carefully designed to isolate the impacts of the ban on the European Union (EU), Russia itself and a selection of key trade partners. The modelling of the ban follows a novel approach, where it is treated as a loss of established trade preferences via reductions in consumer utility in the Armington import function. Not surprisingly, the results indicate that Russia bears the highest income loss (about €3.4 billion) while the EU recovers part of its lost trade through expansion of exports to other markets. An ex‐post comparison between simulation results and observed trade data reveals the model predictions to be broadly accurate, thereby validating the robustness of the modelling approach.     

Land productivity,farm size and returns to scale in Pakistan agriculture

It is by now a commonly accepted proposition that economic development must involve both growth and equity. That in many countries the subsidization of the owners of large farms is inequitable is also acknowledged. However, the debate on the ‘efficiency’ of large versus small farms continues. If the owners of large farms are not using the crop acreage with greater efficiency than are the small farmers and if there are no economies of scale, then the imposition of ceilings on farm size and land redistribution are clearly the right options to consider.The object of this study is to test two hypotheses. First, there is an inverse relationship between land productivity and farm size. Second, there are no economies of scale in agricultural production. The tests are performed by regression analysis on the farm-level data collected from Pakistan by the author in 1974. The merit of this study is that it deals with a country which, with a few other underdeveloped countries, has been a beneficiary of the ‘Green Revolution’. The available studies on Pakistan agriculture are limited to the aggregate analyses. Interregional micro-level studies are almost non-existent.     

Trade liberalization and the structure of protection in Turkey in the 1980s: A quantitative analysis

Zusammenfassung Handelsliberalisierung und die Struktur der Protektion in der Türkei der achtziger Jahre. Eine quantitative Analyse. — Die Autoren haben die Strukturver?nderungen in der Protektion der Türkei untersucht, die sich aus den aufeinanderfolgenden Zollsatz?nderungen von 1983 bis 1989 ergaben. Sie zeigen, da\ die Revisionen der Jahre 1988 und 1989 sowohl die H?he als auch die interindustrielle Streuung der Protektion verringert haben. Trotzdem f?rdert die Struktur der Protektion noch nicht die optimale Allokation der heimischen Ressourcen, wenn man die relativen Preise an der Grenze und damit das türkische Au\enhandelspotential in Betracht zieht. Au\erdem wurde gezeigt, da\ die türkischen Exportindustrien st?rker geschützt werden als die Industrien, die mit Importen konkurrieren.

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Resumen Liberalización comercial y estructura de la protección en Turquía en los a?os 80: un análisis cuantitativo. — En este trabajo se analizan los cambios en la estructura de la protección en Turquía debidos a revisiones sucesivas de los aranceles entre 1983 y 1989. Se demuestra que las revisiones de 1988 y de 1989 han disminuído tanto el nivel como la dispersión intersectorial de la protección. A pesar de ello, la estructura de la protección aún no conduce a una asignación óptima de los recursos nacionales dados los precios relativos en la frontera y, po lo tanto, el potencial del comercio exterior turco. Además, se demuestra que las industrias de exportación turcas exhiben mayor protección que las industrias que compiten con las importaciones.

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Résumé Libéralisation du commerce et la structure de la protection en Turquie dans les années 1980: une analyse quantitative. — Cette étude a analysé les changes dans la structure de la protection en Turquie à cause de plusieurs révisions successives des tarifs douaniers de 1983 jusqu’à 1989. Il est prouvé que les révisions de 1988 et 1989 ont baissé le niveau et la dispersion inter-industrielle de la protection. Malgré cela, la structure de la protection n’est pas encore convenable à une répartition optimale des ressources nationales si l’on considère les prix relatifs à la frontière et par cela le potentiel pour le commerce extérieur de la Turquie. En outre, on peut constater qu’on protège les industries d’exportation turques plus fortement que les secteurs industriels étant en concurrence avec les importations.